Featurette

What Will Happen to Reading and Writing in the Digital Age?

This next survey question deals with the Internet’s impact on reading and writing, and how we see that impact affecting us in the future. Take a gander.

Question 4: Will the state of reading and writing be improved?

1. By 2020, it will be clear that the Internet has enhanced and improved reading, writing, and the rendering of knowledge.

2. By 2020, it will be clear that the Internet has diminished and endangered reading, writing, and the intelligent rendering of knowledge.

4a. Please explain your choice and share your view of the Internet’s influence on the future of knowledge-sharing in 2020, especially when it comes to reading and writing and other displays of information – what is likely to stay the same and what will be different? What do you think is the future of books?

Response

I believe that the Internet will only improve the state of reading and writing. There are some downfalls to communicating in a digital realm, where speed is necessary and many people take shortcuts, but so long as journalistic mediums, such as professional blogs and news sites, continue to post with correct grammar and spelling, writing will continue to improve. It will improve because of how much people will end up reading on the Internet. Many people claim that children and young adults no longer read as much as they used to. I actually believe the contrary, that younger generations are reading more now than ever. Instead of reading novels and newspapers they’re reading Kindle books and news blogs. As long as people keep reading they’ll continue to keep writing in an appropriate manner. By 2020 the different industries associated with the written word will have all moved into the digital realm. Magazines, newspapers, books, and other written resources will all be produced only in a digital format, reducing deforestation. These digital forms of books and magazines will be stored on devices similar to today’s kindle, because reading these resources from a typical computer will not be as popular nor as easy on the eyes. The written word is quickly becoming completely digitized, and the future of books will be in bytes, not pulp.

How Will Social Networking Change Us?

Here’s my third entry from the Pew Internet Futures Survey. This question tackles social networking and how we see it changing our lives in the long-term. Read on!

Question 3: Will social relations get better?

1. In 2020, when I look at the big picture and consider my personal friendships, marriage and other relationships, I see that the Internet has mostly been a negative force on my social world. And this will only grow more true in the future.

2. In 2020, when I look at the big picture and consider my personal friendships, marriage and other relationships, I see that the Internet has mostly been a positive force on my social world. And this will only grow more true in the future.

3a. Please explain your choice and share your view of the Internet’s influence on the future of human relationships in 2020 – what is likely to stay the same and what will be different in human and community relations?

Response

By 2020, the meaning of the term “friendship” will be vastly different than it does now. In 2010, we mostly think of friends as those we are close with in the physical world. However ten years from now, when social media is far more of an ingrained part of our society, many people will not have ever seen many of their friends in person. The Internet has been a very positive force on my social world even now, with me being able to connect and discuss various topics with like-minded people. In the future, where communications will be even more instantaneous than they are today, many people’s closest friends will live halfway around the world, and they will have never met them in the physical realm. In the past, the idea of a social network has always been a group of people that you have met with and become close with. In the future your social network will be much larger than it currently is, with you having different groups that you associate with for different reasons. The entire social dynamic will be vastly changed from the way it is today. People will still have personal interaction with people living in the same area as them, and that will be part of their social world, but far more of their community will be located online, where they can find and connect to those people they share common interests and personalities with.

Where Will Cloud Computing Take Us?

In this second featurette from the Pew Internet Survey, I take a little time to talk about cloud computing, and where I see it taking us in the future. Hope it makes you think about the future of computing.

Question 2: Will we live in the cloud or on the desktop?

1. By 2020, most people won’t do their work with software running on a general-purpose PC.  Instead, they will work in Internet-based applications, like Google Docs, and in applications run from smartphones.  Aspiring application developers will sign up to develop for smart-phone vendors and companies that provide Internet-based applications, because most innovative work will be done in that domain, instead of designing applications that run on a PC operating system.

2. By 2020, most people will still do their work with software running on a general-purpose PC.  Internet-based applications like Google Docs and applications run from smartphones will have some functionality, but the most innovative and important applications will run on (and spring from) a PC operating system.  Aspiring application designers will write mostly for PCs.

2a. Please explain your choice and share your view about how major programs and applications will be designed, how they will function, and the role of cloud computing by 2020.

Response

Despite many of the concerns that have been voiced in regards to cloud computing, I see it as the future of computing for the average user. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing, I can’t say, but it’s definitely the way our technology is heading. With our bookmarks and web browser settings already being hosted in the cloud, and Microsoft coming out with a new cloud-based version of their Office software, there’s not much choice. It’s where the industry is going and we’re helpless but to follow it. With increases in the functionality of web sites using various programming languages, many more desktop-level applications are being developed for the cloud, and as technology advances this trend will advance along with it. In 2020 the majority of our data will be hosted on web servers. Depending on who comes out on top in the various areas of cloud computing, we may be paying for storage space on those servers. Applications will be designed, deployed, and used in the cloud. Development in this environment will lead to a boom in open source success stories, with communities of developers working together to create the best applications possible. Already now Apple is working to have user’s iTunes libraries stored in the cloud, and we’ll see an increase in that trend between now and 2020, with almost all of our data being accessible from anywhere any time.

So Just Where Are We Headed?

As the final Lost premiere looms over the day, I want to talk about a different kind of time travel: Futures Thinking. I recently took the Pew Internet Survey, and answered a series of questions about where I thought the future of the Internet and the way we interacted with technology was heading. So, for the next 5 weeks I will be posting my answers to each question. Two posts a week with one question answered in each post. The way the survey works is each question is presented with two separate scenarios to choose from. Once you choose a scenario you elaborate on your answer and explain why you chose that particular outcome. Below is the first question, I hope you enjoy and that it gets you thinking as well!

Question 1: Will Google make us smart or stupid?

1. By 2020, people’s use of the Internet has enhanced human intelligence; as people are allowed unprecedented access to more information, they become smarter and make better choices. Nicholas Carr was wrong: Google does not make us stupid (http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/200807/google).

2. By 2020, people’s use of the Internet has not enhanced human intelligence and it could even be lowering the IQs of most people who use it a lot. Nicholas Carr was right: Google makes us stupid.

1a. Please explain your choice and share your view of the Internet’s influence on the future of human intelligence in 2020 – what is likely to stay the same and what will be different in the way human intellect evolves?

Response

I do not believe that Google will compromise human intelligence. The proliferation of information across the web, while rendering some aspects of education all but obsolete, will not reduce the brainpower of the human race as a whole. In reality, it will help to increase brain activity in an age where video games and television distract youth from doing any kind of comprehensive reading. The idea of having the collective knowledge of every expert on a subject connected to a shared resource is a powerful thing. There are already a number of different communities across the web focusing on a myriad of different subjects, whether it is about the auto trade or Buddhism. This meeting of minds that resources like Google have created will only serve to increase our knowledge base and make learning about any subject easier for the common man. However, despite this rise in shared knowledge, the educational institution in 2020 will most likely look very similar to the way we know it. This is because schools aren’t simply a place to gather knowledge from books and teachers. There are social norms and “street smarts” that children learn there as well. Being in a social atmosphere while learning leads to better social interactions later on in life. There will still be colleges and universities, simply because these institutions aren’t simply a place where one goes to learn about their future career, they’re also seen as a rite of passage, and will be conserved as one. However these institutions will see some change in the area of technology. The book Ender’s Game comes to mind, where writer Orson Scott Card paints a future where grade school students work on “desk” computers, sending their answers to the teacher and working together on projects in a technological realm. This is the way I see education evolving as we head into the future. It will integrate the Internet and technology into the way we learn, but that technology will not replace the institutions that we’ve grown up with.

Featurette: Dropzone/Dropbox

In lieu of updating with the third part of the Essentials, I thought I’d post today on a great new program that goes hand-in-hand with a great online storage service. The program is called Dropzone from Aptonic Software, and it’s one of the best tools I’ve found that work right from your dock. The program requires that you purchase a $10 license fee, but it also has a limited 15-day trial, so it’s definitely something worth checking out.
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